MLB home run props for 5/9: A big hit from Witt just fits

There are only seven games on the Thursday MLB slate, but we still spy some value out there in home run props. Let's cash a winner with three home run bets for the shortened slate. 

Anthony Rizzo (+630 FanDuel)

Astros at Yankees, 5:05 p.m. ET

Ronel Blanco was lights out to begin the year, but he's starting to get barreled up recently. The Houston Astros starter has given up four home runs over his last three starts, and he now has the 10th-highest fly ball rate among qualified pitchers. Anthony Rizzo has hit all six of his home runs this season off right-handed pitching. He's also batting .311 with three home runs and a .936 OPS over the last 15 days. This price is so high because the wind will be blowing in at Yankee Stadium on Thursday, but Rizzo has the pop to cut through that. 

Nolan Arenado (+450 FD)

Cardinals at Brewers, 7:40 p.m. ET

Anyone interested in fading Milwaukee Brewers starter Tobias Myers on Thursday? You should be. The right-hander has surrendered five home runs over his first three starts this season, and he's giving up a 12.8 percent barrel rate. Nolan Arenado is on fire with a .389 batting average and a .667 slugging percentage over the last week. He's also been much better against righties than lefties this year, and this is a dream matchup for a dinger. 

Bobby Witt Jr. (+480 FD)

Royals at Angels, 9:38 p.m. ET

Los Angeles Angels starter Reid Detmers is striking out a ton of batters this season, but he's vulnerable to hard-hit balls when he makes mistakes. The left-hander is giving up the 14th-highest fly ball rate and the 29th-highest barrel rate among qualified pitchers this season, and he's coming off a start against the Cleveland Guardians in which he surrendered three dingers. Let's try to fade him with Bobby Witt Jr., who doesn't have a homer off a lefty yet this year but did lead the Kansas City Royals in home runs and slugging percentage against lefties in 2023.